Annual Lecture in Economics 2024 – A Physical event
Co-organised by the Cyprus Economic Society and the Faculty of Economics and management of the University of Cyprus
Monday 27 May 2024
18:00-19:45
Venue: Ceremony Hall of the University of Cyprus (75 Kallipoleos Avenue, Nicosia)
A Change in the Inflation Regime
Speaker: Manoj Pradhan, Founder of the independent macroeconomic research firm Talking Heads Macroeconomics, and previously Managing Director at Morgan Stanley where he led the ‘Global Economics’ team.
Abstract: Central banks are increasingly confident that they can sustainably bring inflation back to target and keep it there in the future. In a sense, this is a return to the ‘transitory’ explanation of the post-pandemic surge in inflation. Such a benign outcome seems likely only because of the combination of cyclical forces (an improvement in supply chains, immigration, and an important deflation in China). Demography, in the decades ahead, is likely to push inflation and the equilibrium interest rate structurally higher. Neither policymakers nor financial markets are prepared for such a change.

Discussion forum – A web event
Thursday 18 April 2024
16:00-17:15
Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change
Speaker: Vinod Thomas, Visiting Professor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, was Senior Vice President, Independent Evaluation, at the World Bank, and Director General of Independent Evaluation at the Asian Development Bank
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: The discussion will be on Vinod Thomas’ book published in 2023, ‘Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change’. The focus will be on building climate resilience as a systemic approach and as investment in preparedness and response capabilities for climate shocks. As climate change continues to progress, risks that once had low probability and high impact will become high-probability, high-impact events. Governments must anticipate this shift and continually prepare for the larger risks of the future, not merely for a repeat of events of the past. The discussion will include practical case studies as well as conceptual frameworks for understanding resilience. The importance of these issues will only increase as the climate crisis progresses and extreme weather events inevitably become more commonplace. As such there are important lessons offering valuable guidelines to those working in the field and all interested in understanding climate resilience.