Discussion Forum – physical event
Friday 15 September 2023
18:00-20:00
Anatomy of the Cyprus Economic and Banking Crisis 2008-2013: An Assessment of What Really Happened and Why
Speaker: Mikis Hadjimichael, Economic and financial advisor, former senior advisor to the Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Cyprus, and former senior official of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides, Manager Economic Research at Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Venue: Bank of Cyprus Cultural Foundation, 80 Faneromenis Street, Nicosia 1011
Abstract: More than ten years since the dramatic events of March 2013, there seems to be more consensus on the broad causes of the crisis. Yet, there is still no succinct and comprehensive account of what really happened and why. The discussion forum will address all the related questions, including the built-up of vulnerabilities and the weaknesses in the assessment of the related financial stability risks and in evaluating the proper timing and nature of the needed policy options. There were proximate causes to the crisis such as the bursting of the housing bubble and the impact of the Greek debt restructuring on the capital of the two largest banks in Cyprus, among others. The true origins, however, relate to the escalating vulnerabilities and distortions in the banking system; the ineffective bank supervision; the emergence of large budget deficits; the apparent lack of an appropriate framework for analyzing financial stability risks; the long delay by the government in seeking financial assistance from the troika and the government’s unwillingness to reach an agreement once a program request was finally made. These will be discussed.
Discussion Forum – physical event
Tuesday 27 June 2023
18:00-19:15
Optimum currency areas: the euro and its challenges
Speaker: Miranda Xafa, CEO of E.F. Consulting, Greece and formerly IMF economist and member of the Executive Board, Chief Economic Advisor to Greek PM, Constantine Mitsotakis
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides, Manager Economic Research at Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Venue: Ceremony Hall of the University of Cyprus, 75 Kallipoleos Avenue, Nicosia
Abstract: The euro is a currency without a state, and the euro area is a monetary union without a political union. Now, more than 20 years after its introduction, and about 30 since the Maastricht Treaty, the euro has gone through many oscillations, from the initial exuberance that it will accelerate convergence among member states and boost growth, to the realities of the crises of the 2010s, and increasing divergences among member states. Today foremost, the geopolitical realities once again, bring to the forefront new currency and economic risks, associated with de-Globalisation and with de-dollarization. Amidst this new emerging global order, and its own realities of divergence and fiscal imbalances, we ask the question what of the euro, its challenges, and its future.
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday 22 June 2023
17:30-18:45
Growth for good: Reshaping Capitalism to Save Humanity from Climate Catastrophe
Speaker: Alessio Terzi, Economist at the European Commission and Adjunct Professor at Sciences Po and HEC Paris
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides, Manager Economic Research at Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: The discussion will be based on a book our speaker and author, Alessio Terzi published in 2022, with the same title. The book is not an economics textbook per se, more, a treatise on the economics of nature and the environment. It is about the relationship between the two, the natural environment and the economy, and how or whether, we can have an expanding economy while at the same time tackling the environmental challenges, we have, and whether we can do that within a capitalistic system. Can we fight climate change and improve our environmental indicators, without shrinking the economy, and how?
Discussion Forum – web event
Wednesday 7 June, 2023
18:00-19:15
The Turkish 2023 elections and what they mean for the country and for the World
Speaker: Niyazi Kızılyürek, Member of European Parliament
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager at Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: Erdogan’s victory in the 2023 Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections, is a remarkable event in its own right. After a 20-year grip on power, as prime minister and then as president, his coalition of the People’s Alliance, won an absolute majority in parliament while securing the presidency in a second round of voting with 52%. All of this against the worst economic performance in decades, with inflation rampant and the currency at its lowest level of exchange over a long period of time. We will be discussing Erdogan’s victory; the domestic contradictions in Turkiye; its geopolitical aspirations; relations with NATO and with the EU; and implications for the Cyprus problem.
Discussion Forum – web event
Wednesday 31 May, 2023
18:00-19:15
Fiscal Austerity and Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Speaker: Tamon Asonuma, Economist at the Strategy, Policy and Review Department of the International Monetary Fund
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager at Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: Sovereigns implement fiscal austerity, that is, expenditure consolidation around debt crises. From data on fiscal expenditure consolidation around sovereign debt restructurings in the period 1975–2020, interesting findings are derived, which will be presented and discussed. For instance, expenditure consolidation precedes pre-emptive restructurings ‘ex ante’, while it occurs upon defaults/post-default restructurings ‘ex post’. In turn, pre-emptive and post-default expenditure consolidation have different implications for public investment and the economy at large.
Annual Lecture in Economics – Physical event
Thursday 4 May 2023
18:00-19:30
What next for globalisation?
Speaker: Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard Kennedy School, and President of the International Economic Association
Introduction: Ioannis Tirkides, President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Chair: Sofronis Clerides – Professor of Economics, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Management University of Cyprus
Abstract: The global system is ever changing. From the gold standard in the late nineteenth century and the great depression, to the Bretton Woods system after the second world war, and the neoliberal hyper-globalization order that dominated the post-cold-war era. The neoliberal hyper-globalization order is now in retreat since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. At the start of a new era of multipolarity and great power competition, the world is abandoning hyper-globalization, but what will replace it remains uncertain. Yet, much will depend on the new international order, for economic welfare, international interdependence, peace and may be war.
Discussion Forum – web event
Wednesday, April 26, 2023
17:30-18:45
An overhaul of the European fiscal framework?
Speaker: Andreas Eisl, Research Fellow on European Economic Policy at the Jacques Delors Institute, Paris
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: This discussion will focus on the key elements of the European Commission’s recent proposal to reform the European fiscal framework and will raise several issues of particular relevance for the ongoing political negotiations. These will include questions about the actual minimum fiscal consolidation requirements imposed on Member States, the challenges of the new fiscal structural plans for democratic choice, and the potential inadequacy of the incentive structure to ensure sufficient public investment in the face of the climate crisis.
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday, March 23, 2023
17:30-18:45
The European Economy and the prospects for enhanced macroeconomic coordination
Speaker: Pierre Jaillet, Economist, Associate Research Fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute and at the Institute of International Strategic Relations, in Paris, Former Director General Economics and International Relations, Banque de France
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: The global and European economic outlook is clouded by uncertainty amid an ongoing war in Ukraine, successive supply shocks and an underlying persistent inflation, underpinned by central banks’ monetary tightening to restore price stability. Europe is particularly affected by the war in Ukraine, with a prolonged energy crisis in the midst of ongoing green and digital economic transitions. Europe also faces longer term challenges related to its declining potential growth and increasing economic heterogeneity. This new environment is also forcing a rethink of the institutional architecture and of the economic and financial coordination framework.
