Discussion Forum – web event
Wednesday 31 May, 2023
Fiscal Austerity and Sovereign Debt Restructurings
Speaker: Tamon Asonuma, Economist at the Strategy, Policy and Review Department of the International Monetary Fund
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager at Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: Sovereigns implement fiscal austerity, that is, expenditure consolidation around debt crises. From data on fiscal expenditure consolidation around sovereign debt restructurings in the period 1975–2020, interesting findings are derived, which will be presented and discussed. For instance, expenditure consolidation precedes pre-emptive restructurings ‘ex ante’, while it occurs upon defaults/post-default restructurings ‘ex post’. In turn, pre-emptive and post-default expenditure consolidation have different implications for public investment and the economy at large.

Annual Lecture in Economics – Physical event
Thursday 4 May 2023
What next for globalisation?
Speaker: Dani Rodrik, Professor of International Political Economy at Harvard Kennedy School, and President of the International Economic Association
Introduction: Ioannis Tirkides, President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Chair: Sofronis Clerides – Professor of Economics, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Management University of Cyprus
Abstract: The global system is ever changing. From the gold standard in the late nineteenth century and the great depression, to the Bretton Woods system after the second world war, and the neoliberal hyper-globalization order that dominated the post-cold-war era. The neoliberal hyper-globalization order is now in retreat since the global financial crisis of 2008-09. At the start of a new era of multipolarity and great power competition, the world is abandoning hyper-globalization, but what will replace it remains uncertain. Yet, much will depend on the new international order, for economic welfare, international interdependence, peace and may be war.

Discussion Forum – web event
Wednesday, April 26, 2023
An overhaul of the European fiscal framework?
Speaker: Andreas Eisl, Research Fellow on European Economic Policy at the Jacques Delors Institute, Paris
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: This discussion will focus on the key elements of the European Commission’s recent proposal to reform the European fiscal framework and will raise several issues of particular relevance for the ongoing political negotiations. These will include questions about the actual minimum fiscal consolidation requirements imposed on Member States, the challenges of the new fiscal structural plans for democratic choice, and the potential inadequacy of the incentive structure to ensure sufficient public investment in the face of the climate crisis.

Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday, March 23, 2023
The European Economy and the prospects for enhanced macroeconomic coordination
Speaker: Pierre Jaillet, Economist, Associate Research Fellow at the Jacques Delors Institute and at the Institute of International Strategic Relations, in Paris, Former Director General Economics and International Relations, Banque de France
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: The global and European economic outlook is clouded by uncertainty amid an ongoing war in Ukraine, successive supply shocks and an underlying persistent inflation, underpinned by central banks’ monetary tightening to restore price stability. Europe is particularly affected by the war in Ukraine, with a prolonged energy crisis in the midst of ongoing green and digital economic transitions. Europe also faces longer term challenges related to its declining potential growth and increasing economic heterogeneity. This new environment is also forcing a rethink of the institutional architecture and of the economic and financial coordination framework.