Annual Lecture in Economics 2024 – A Physical event
Co-organised by the Cyprus Economic Society and the Faculty of Economics and management of the University of Cyprus
Monday 27 May 2024
Venue: Ceremony Hall of the University of Cyprus (75 Kallipoleos Avenue, Nicosia)
A Change in the Inflation Regime
Speaker: Manoj Pradhan, Founder of the independent macroeconomic research firm Talking Heads Macroeconomics, and previously Managing Director at Morgan Stanley where he led the ‘Global Economics’ team.
Abstract: Central banks are increasingly confident that they can sustainably bring inflation back to target and keep it there in the future. In a sense, this is a return to the ‘transitory’ explanation of the post-pandemic surge in inflation. Such a benign outcome seems likely only because of the combination of cyclical forces (an improvement in supply chains, immigration, and an important deflation in China). Demography, in the decades ahead, is likely to push inflation and the equilibrium interest rate structurally higher. Neither policymakers nor financial markets are prepared for such a change.