Panel Discussion – A Physical Event
Organised under the Cyprus Forum 2024 – by the Cyprus Economic Society
Thursday 3 October 2024
14:00-15:00
Venue: Nicosia Old Town Hall (Eleftheria’s Square), Aphrodite room
Subject: Inflation – causes, consequences and policy challenges
Speakers:
Ioannis Tirkides, Economics Research Manager at Bank of Cyprus and President, the Cyprus Economic Society – Inflation dynamics: From external shocks to systemic causes.
Maria Heracleous, Economist, former Executive Director of the Central Bank of Cyprus –
Inflation and central banking in uncertain times.
Marios Clerides, Economist, formerly CEO of the Cyprus Cooperative Bank; Group Senior general Manager, Hellenic Bank; Former Executive Chairman, CSEC – Hidden inflation, shrinkflation, and cost of living implications.
Kyriacos Iordanou, General Manager at Institute of Certified Public Accountants of Cyprus –
Implications for households and companies.
Moderator
Andreas Charalambous – Economist, former Director at the Ministry of Finance, Cyprus
Abstract: The debate about inflation, following the covid pandemic, has been intense and is still raging. Is inflation back on a long term basis or is it a transitory phenomenon? The panel will focus on the causes of inflation with the reference to the current experience, what it means for the cost of living, the problems it causes for the economy and for households and companies, and how central banks can control inflation under uncertainty.
Discussion forum – A Physical Event
Organized by the Cyprus Economic Society
Friday 21 June 2024
17:30-19:00
Venue: Stelios Philanthropic Foundation Head Quarters, 5 Markou Drakou Street, Nicosia
Subject: The Middle East Crisis, broader implications, and risk of escalation
Speaker: Kristin Fabbe, Professor in Business and Comparative Politics at the Florence School of Transnational Governance, European University Institute
Chair and introduction: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: As a result of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, dynamics in the Middle East are in a state of perilous uncertainty. Israel invaded Gaza, and that war continues to rage, while, at the same time, Israel is fighting Hezbollah on its northern border. Relations between Jerusalem and Washington are also strained, and the International Court of Justice has ruled that a plausible case can be made that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. Meanwhile, the United States engaged in intense shuttle diplomacy with the region’s two major economies: Saudi Arabi and Turkey. The United States, which is already fighting the Houthis, also risks direct confrontation with Iran, which neither country wants, especially on the eve of highly consequential US elections. Given these developments, there is potentially great danger of further escalation across the region. What might be the lasting consequences of these conflicts? What might the impact in the near region, including Cyprus? What do these developments mean for the position and influence of the United States in the region? Where does all this leave the European Union? We discuss these issues with Professor Kristin Fabbe, who has spent two decades researching political and economic dynamics in the Middle East and its surrounding neighborhood.
Annual Lecture in Economics 2024 – A Physical event
Co-organised by the Cyprus Economic Society and the Faculty of Economics and management of the University of Cyprus
Monday 27 May 2024
18:00-19:45
Venue: Ceremony Hall of the University of Cyprus (75 Kallipoleos Avenue, Nicosia)
A Change in the Inflation Regime
Speaker: Manoj Pradhan, Founder of the independent macroeconomic research firm Talking Heads Macroeconomics, and previously Managing Director at Morgan Stanley where he led the ‘Global Economics’ team.
Abstract: Central banks are increasingly confident that they can sustainably bring inflation back to target and keep it there in the future. In a sense, this is a return to the ‘transitory’ explanation of the post-pandemic surge in inflation. Such a benign outcome seems likely only because of the combination of cyclical forces (an improvement in supply chains, immigration, and an important deflation in China). Demography, in the decades ahead, is likely to push inflation and the equilibrium interest rate structurally higher. Neither policymakers nor financial markets are prepared for such a change.
Event Material
Presentation: Manoj Pradhan
Discussion forum – A web event
Thursday 18 April 2024
16:00-17:15
Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change
Speaker: Vinod Thomas, Visiting Professor at Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore, was Senior Vice President, Independent Evaluation, at the World Bank, and Director General of Independent Evaluation at the Asian Development Bank
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: The discussion will be on Vinod Thomas’ book published in 2023, ‘Risk and Resilience in the Era of Climate Change’. The focus will be on building climate resilience as a systemic approach and as investment in preparedness and response capabilities for climate shocks. As climate change continues to progress, risks that once had low probability and high impact will become high-probability, high-impact events. Governments must anticipate this shift and continually prepare for the larger risks of the future, not merely for a repeat of events of the past. The discussion will include practical case studies as well as conceptual frameworks for understanding resilience. The importance of these issues will only increase as the climate crisis progresses and extreme weather events inevitably become more commonplace. As such there are important lessons offering valuable guidelines to those working in the field and all interested in understanding climate resilience.
Event Material
Presentation: Vinod Thomas
Discussion forum – A Physical Event
Thursday 4 April 2024
18:00-19:30
Cyprus Economy: Past – Present and Prospects – The road for stabilization and growth
Venue: University of Cyprus Campus, University House Anastasios G. Leventis, Room B108
Speaker: George Panteli, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Republic of Cyprus
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: The Cyprus economy is in transition, which necessitates to refocus its path for stabilisation and growth. In this context, the discussion will look int the fiscal dynamics among other things; the prerequisites for debt sustainability and tax reform; economic structure and the diversification of the economic base; the nature of the current account; the significance of climate change and the impact on the Cyprus economy in the short- and the long-run. The discussion will also review the Implementation of the Cyprus’ Recovery and Resilience Plan.
Event Material
Presentation: George Panteli
Discussion forum – A Physical Event
Thursday 14 March 2024
18:30-20:00
The 3 i’s – invasion, inflation, and interest rates
Venue: Ceremony Hall of the University of Cyprus, 75 Kallipoleos Avenue, Nicosia
Speaker: Andreas Dombret, Global Senior Advisor at Oliver Wyman, and former member of the Executive Board of Deutsche Bundesbank
Chair: Sofronis Clerides – Professor of Economics, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Management University of Cyprus
Abstract: The 3 i’s – invasion, inflation, and interest rates – are dominating many discussions since Russia invaded the Ukraine. All three i’s are interconnected and exert an important impact on the European economies. Andreas Dombret will offer an analysis, replaying the past 2 years from an economic perspective and trying to predict monetary policy for the rest of this year.
Συνέδριο-συζήτηση Με φυσική παρουσία
Τετάρτη 28 Φεβρουαρίου 2024
18:00-19:45
Η Πορεία της Κύπρου προς την Κλιματική Ουδετερότητα: Οφέλη και Προκλήσεις
Χώρος: Ινστιτούτο Κύπρου, Fresnel Auditorium, Κωνσταντίνου Καβάφη 20, Αγλαντζιά
Ομιλητής: Θεόδωρος Ζαχαριάδης, Καθηγητής στο Ινστιτούτο Κύπρου, Αντιπρόεδρος της Επιστημονικής Επιτροπής του Ευρωπαϊκού Οργανισμού Περιβάλλοντος
Συνομιλητές:
Χαράλαμπος Θεοπέμπτου, Βουλευτής Λευκωσίας, Κίνημα Οικολόγων – Συνεργασία Πολιτών – Παρέμβαση: Από τη συμφωνία του Παρισιού στο Fit for 55
Ανθή Χαραλάμπους, Σύμβουλος σε θέματα οικονομίας χαμηλών εκπομπών (ideopsis Ltd) – Παρέμβαση: Επιχειρηματικές και χρηματοδοτικές ευκαιρίες πράσινης μετάβασης
Συντονιστής: Ανδρέας Χαραλάμπους – Οικονομολόγος, πρώην Διευθυντής στο Υπουργείο Οικονομικών
Περίληψη: Για να φτάσουμε σε μια κλιματικά ουδέτερη Κύπρο το 2050, με απεξάρτηση από τα ορυκτά καύσιμα και κατάλληλη αξιοποίηση και διαχείριση των αποβλήτων, θα απαιτηθεί ένα ολοκληρωμένο πλαίσιο πολιτικής, που να περιλαμβάνει το καίριας σημασίας θέμα της τιμολόγησης, σοβαρές επενδύσεις από τον δημόσιο τομέα και κίνητρα για επενδύσεις από τον ιδιωτικό τομέα, καθώς και συμπράξεις των δύο. Οι πολιτικές αυτές μπορούν να ωφελήσουν την οικονομία και την κοινωνία, αλλά συνοδεύονται και από οικονομικές προκλήσεις, κυρίως μεταβατικής φύσης, για τις οποίες πρέπει να ληφθούν έγκαιρα μέτρα. Με τι μεταβατικό κόστος είναι εφικτή η πορεία προς την κλιματική ουδετερότητα; Ποια κοινωνικά μέτρα πρέπει να ληφθούν για τις επηρεαζόμενες ευάλωτες ομάδες; Πού πρέπει να προσανατολιστεί η οικονομική πολιτική τα επόμενα χρόνια; Προκύπτουν ευκαιρίες που θα μπορούσαν να αξιοποιηθούν ώστε η μετάβαση να συνοδεύεται από επενδύσεις με οφέλη και υψηλή προστιθέμενη αξία;
Event Material
Presentation: Theodoros Zachariadis
Presentation: Anthi Charalambous
Presentation: Charalampos Theopemptou
Discussion forum – A Web Event
Wednesday 7 February 2024
17:30-18:45
The Cyprus Economy Panel 2024: Performance and prospects
Speaker: Heiko Peters, Vice President – Senior Analyst in Moody’s Sovereign Risk Group, in Frankfurt
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: The discussion will focus on resilience and vulnerabilities for the Cyprus economy, against an uncertain international outlook; will look into the drivers of growth and the significance of macroeconomic stability; the challenges posed by the twin transition to a digital future and a green economy; will consider the role reforms can play in balancing the economy and raising potential growth.
INVITATION
Event Material
Presentation: Heiki Peters
