Workshop – hybrid event, web and physical
Thursday, November 17, 2022
17:30-18:45
Risk through the looking glass
Speakers: Savvakis Savvides – Visiting Lecturer, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy, Queen’s University, Canada
Chair: Marios Clerides – Economist, formerly CEO of the Cyprus Cooperative Bank; Group Senior general Manager, Hellenic Bank; Former Executive Chairman, CSEC
Abstract: The question of what is really risk in capital investments is posed and discussed. It suggests that the almost total acceptance of the concept that volatility constitutes a good measure of risk is wrong and leads towards a misallocation of economic resources. It is argued that the Expected Loss of a capital investment project should be used as a measure of risk. It is further illustrated how the risk aversion attitudes of potential investors can be taken into consideration in the decision to invest or not. The pursuit of return without risk inevitably leads to the transfer of wealth through a failing banking system which collaborates with an unregulated financial market who constantly seek low risk and relatively safe returns for the benefit of their wealthy clients. It is further argued that wasteful finance impairs the real economy and inevitably brings about financial crises and economic recessions. The promise of a “return without the risk” leads financial intermediaries in the direction of an elusive quest whereby the only way to attain this is through directing funding towards the capture of existing assets rather than investing in the real economy to create new wealth.
Event Material
Paper: Savvakis Savvides
Presentation: Savvakis Savvides
Discussion Forum – hybrid event, web and physical
Friday, November 4, 2022
17:30-18:45
Is it time to settle the great inflation debate?
Speakers: Yiannis Kitromilides – Associate Member of the Cambridge Centre of Economic and Public Policy, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus
Abstract: Inflation has always been controversial to interpret or design policy for. Central banks were unable to inflate their economies in the deflation experience of the 2010s and are now having a hard time controlling the current inflation which is seen as primarily a supply phenomenon. Central bank tools influence inflation via demand and with a time lag and are not well suited for supply driven inflation. At the same time, we raise questions about influences associated with protracted expansionary policies, ad changes in the labour markets since the 1980s.
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday, October 13, 2022
17:30-19:00
Building the strategic autonomy of Europe while decoupling trends accelerate
Speaker: Elvire Fabry – Senior Research Fellow, the Jacque Delors Institute
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus
Abstract: The concept of strategic autonomy, defined as ‘capacity to act autonomously when and where necessary and with partners wherever possible’, is taking a growing importance in the European Union’s strategic thought. The European Union must find its way in the context of growing rivalry between China and the United States. With the COVID crisis and war in Ukraine, the notion of sovereignty, the notion of autonomy in Europe, but also in other parts of the world, it suddenly gained much attention.
Discussion Forum – hybrid event, web and physical
Friday, September 30, 2022
14:30-15:15
Inclusive growth and the future of work
Speakers:
Zsolt Darvas – Senior Fellow, Bruegel
Duygu Güner – Affiliate Fellow, Bruegel
Discussant: Ioannis Tirkides, Bank of Cyprus
Note: This event is offered by the Cyprus Economic Society as a knowledge partner under the ‘Cyprus Forum 2022’. Registration is required separately at the Cyprus Forum website.
Abstract: What challenges and opportunities does technology bring to the labour market? The geography of work is changing. The discussion focusses on what does technological innovation mean for labour markets, remunerations, and inequalities, for social policies and for social systems in general. How can we steer technological change in a direction that is labour-complementing and welfare enhancing? How can governments and businesses help workers to adapt to technological change, through reskilling and transitioning initiatives? These and other related issues will be discussed.
Event Material
Presentation: Zsolt Darvas
Presentation: Duygu Güner
Annual General Meeting of the Cyprus Economic Society 2021 – A web event
Tuesday, 28 June 2022
17:30-19:30
Agenda
Quorum / Annual Report / Financial Report / Membership Report
Elections / Strategic issues discussion / Other business
Notes
This is a members only event. For proposals or suggestions, for a declaration of interest for the elections and for nominations for the elections, separate instructions will be sent with the formal invitation.
Discussion Forum – A hybrid event, physical and web based
Παρασκευή, 10 Ιουνίου 2022
18:00-19:30
Πληθωρισμός, αυξημένη αβεβαιότητα και νομισματική πολιτική – το νέο διεθνές οικονομικό υπόδειγμα
Ομιλητής: Θεόδωρος Πελαγίδης – Υποδιοικητής της Τράπεζας της Ελλάδος και Καθηγητής Οικονομικής Ανάλυσης στο Πανεπιστήμιο Πειραιώς
Συντονιστής: Ιωάννης Τιρκίδης – Οικονομολόγος, Διευθυντής Οικονομικών Ερευνών της Τράπεζας Κύπρου
Σύνοψη: Η έλευση της πανδημίας οδήγησε την παγκόσμια οικονομία στο απόγειο της λεγόμενης δομικής στασιμότητας (secular stagnation). Χαρακτηριστικό της προηγούμενης δεκαετίας αποτέλεσε η αδυναμία της δαπάνης συνοδευόμενη από πολύ χαμηλά ή και αρνητικά επιτόκια αλλά και μια υπέρ-διευκολυντική νομισματική και κατά περίπτωση επεκτατική δημοσιονομική πολιτική διεθνώς. Η έξοδος από την πανδημία συνοδεύτηκε αρχικώς από μια επιτάχυνση των ρυθμών οικονομικής μεγέθυνσης στο σύνολο σχεδόν των δυτικών οικονομιών, συνοδευόμενη όμως από την επιστροφή του πληθωρισμού. Επιστροφή ενός επίμονου, υψηλού και σαφώς μακρύτερου σε χρονική διάρκεια πληθωρισμού, η φύση του οποίου αναφέρεται τόσο σε ένα πληθωρισμό κόστους όσο και σε ένα πληθωρισμό ζήτησης. Οι νομισματικές αρχές, ευρισκόμενες σαφώς πίσω από την καμπύλη, αντιμετωπίζουν μια σχεδόν πρωτοφανή πρόκληση: από τη μια να τιθασεύσουν τον υψηλό πληθωρισμό ενώ από την άλλη να αποφύγουν μια κατάσταση στην οποία τα μέτρα της νομισματικής σύσφιξης και τα υψηλότερα επιτόκια να προκαλέσουν περιστολή της οικονομικής δραστηριότητας ή και χειρότερα να οδηγήσουν στο φαινόμενο του στασιμοπληθωρισμού. Όλα αυτά μάλιστα σε ένα περιβάλλον γεωπολιτικών αναταραχών, οι οποίες αποτρέπουν έτι περαιτέρω την επιστροφή σε μια διεθνή οικονομική τάξη και κανονικότητα.
Event Material
Presentation: Θεόδωρος Πελαγίδης
Annual Lecture in Economics – web event
Thursday 26 May 2022
18:00-19:30
Recent changes in global income distribution and their political implications
Speaker: Branko Milanovic – Senior Scholar at the Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality at the CUNY Graduate Center and Centennial Professor at the London School of Economics
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus, and President of the Cyprus Economics Society
Abstract: Incomes remained fairly stable in the advanced countries since the 1980s and globalization is thought of as the driving force. At the same time the incomes of populations in poor countries have grown steeply and hundreds of millions of people have been lifted out of poverty. Hence global income inequality overall dropped. The lecture will examine the recent trends in global income distributions, both before and after Covid, and what they mean politically, including for globalization itself, and for global relations such as the trade and technology war between China and the United States. What will happen to the spread of technology and improvements in living standards across large swaths of the world? Slowing growth will make it harder to eradicate poverty and likely preserve current levels of global inequality. This will be the opposite of the initial dynamic of globalization.
Event Material
Presentation: Branko Milanovic
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday 12 May 2022
17:30-18:45
Financial stability risks from crypto-assets
Speaker: Costas Stephanou – Head of Financial Stability Analysis at the FSB Secretariat
Chair: Marios Clerides – Economist, formerly CEO of the Cyprus Cooperative Bank; Group Senior general Manager, Hellenic Bank; Former Executive Chairman, CSEC
Abstract: The Crypto-asset markets include unbacked crypto-assets (such as Bitcoin), stablecoins, and decentralised finance (DeFi) and crypto-asset trading platforms. These markets are fast evolving and could reach a point where they represent a threat to global financial stability due to their scale, structural vulnerabilities and increasing interconnectedness with the traditional financial system. The presentation will cover recent developments in these markets and their financial stability implications, drawing on the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB’s) latest assessment of risks to financial stability from crypto assets.
Event Material
Presentation: Costas Stephanou
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday 5 May 2022
17:30-18:45
The case for Central Bank Digital Currencies
Speaker: Oliver Wünsch – Partner at Oliver Wyman
Chair: Maria Heracleous – Executive Director and Member of the Board of Directors at Central Bank of Cyprus
Abstract: The last 5 years have seen a seismic shift in the debate on digital currencies. After having been dismissive of the idea at first, many central banks around the world have embraced the idea of issuing some kind of central bank digital currency (CBDC). However, developments are currently constrained to use cases that involve payment transactions in the retail and wholesale sphere. We argue that for CBDCs to be broadly accepted and not just compete with existing, highly efficient payment systems, it will require instruments that fulfil all functions of money, i.e. means of payment, unit of account but also store of value, thereby providing an avenue to partially or fully substitute, physical cash in a modern world. Further, we acknowledge that a world with potent CBDCs might indeed come with changes to the institutional landscape of the financial system, with financial institutions regrouping around their basic functions of capital, credit and information intermediation and risk management. As such, a CBDC should be judged against the objective of making the financial system more effective and efficiencies rather than preserving current structures. Finally, we argue that a CBDC that is hampered by disproportionate non-financial considerations, such as compliance or political concerns, might face stiff competition from state-issued and private digital currencies in particular in countries that do not issue a reserve currency.
Discussion Forum – web event
Friday 29 April 2022
17:30-18:45
France’s presidential election and its significance for Europe
Speaker: Sébastien Maillard – Director at Jacques Delors Institute, Paris
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager at Bank of Cyprus and President of the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: In a context of global geopolitical uncertainty, economic transition and multiple challenges in the European Union, the presidential election in the second largest economy in Europe and the only one in Europe that is a nuclear power and member of the UN Security Council, matters, beyond France. The domestic and European issues that will decide the election are the same issues debated across the entire EU. Population ageing, pensions, health care systems, inflation, defense and security, the role of the state in the economy, the role of the EU in national policy and its position in an emerging new global order. We will be discussing these and more, with our guest from the Jacques Delors Institute, Sebastien Maillard.
Discussion forum – physical and web event
Co-organised by the Cyprus Economic Society, the Cyprus Association of Economists and Visa Europe
Thursday 28 April 2022
17:30-19:00
Economic outlook for 2022: the return of optimism, derailed
Speaker: Adolfo Laurenti – European Principal Economist at Visa
Introductions:
Aliki Stylianou – Head of Currency Management Department Central Bank of Cyprus and President the Cyprus Association of Economists
Michael Ioannides – Country Manager Cyprus, Visa Europe
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research manager at Bank of Cyprus and President the Cyprus Economic Society
Abstract: Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West adopted an extensive set of sanctions that can be very costly for Russia but also for the global economy. The war and sanctions are affecting inflation, supply chains and create conditions that are fragmenting the global economic system. This is the first time that the US dollar as the global reserve currency and the SWIFT messaging system that underpins international transactions, form part of the sanctions regime. What might be the policy response and what might that mean for growth and financial stability. We discuss the subject with Adolfo Laurenti, the European Principal Economist at Visa.
Panel Discussion – web event
Friday 8 April 2022
17:30-19:00
Banking Crisis, Sovereign Debt Restructurings, and Financial Stability Policies in Cyprus During 2012–13
Speakers:
Michalis Papaioannou – TA Expert Advisor, International Monetary Fund and Visiting Scholar and Professor at the Lebow College of Business, School of Economics, Drexel University
Tamon Asonuma – Economist, Strategy Policy and Review Department, International Monetary Fund
Discussants:
Marios Clerides –Economist, formerly CEO of the Cyprus Cooperative Bank; Group Senior general Manager, Hellenic Bank; Former Executive Chairman, CSEC
Michael Sarris: Chairman of AstroBank, former Finance Minister and former Department Director at the World Bank
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus
Abstract: The discussion forum will revisit of Cyprus’ domestic sovereign debt restructuring in 2013 which was undertaken in the context of the country’s economic adjustment programs agreed with the European Stability Mechanism and with the International Monetary Fund. In this context, Cyprus’ second-largest bank, the Cyprus Popular Bank (CPB), was closed, and a unique bail-in mechanism was applied, with a one-time bank deposit levy (haircut) imposed on all uninsured deposits of CPB and on 47.5 percent of uninsured deposits of the largest commercial bank, the Bank of Cyprus (BOC). The debt restructuring was successful in attaining substantial debt relief, reducing the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio, and restoring financial stability, but at a high cost for depositors. The discussion forum will focus on a paper by Asonuma, Papaioannou and Tsuda, Multinational Finance Journal, 2021, vol. 25, issue 3-4, 163-186.
Event Material
Presentation: Tamon Asonuma & Michael G. Papaioannou
Discussion Forum – web event
Wednesday 30 March 2022
17:00-18:15
Πολεμικές αναταράξεις στην Ουκρανία – βραχυχρόνιες και μακροχρόνιες επιπτώσεις για κυπριακή οικονομία
Ομιλητής: Ευγένιος Ευγενίου – Σύμβουλος Επιχειρήσεων, τέως διευθύνων σύμβουλος της PWC Κύπρου
Συντονιστής: Ανδρέας Χαραλάμπους – Οικονομολόγος, πρώην Διευθυντής Χρηματοοικονομικής Σταθερότητας, Υπουργείο Οικονομικών
Σύνοψη: Η κυπριακή οικονομία χαρακτηρίζεται από ικανοποιητική ανάπτυξη και ικανοποιητικό βιοτικό επίπεδο – κατά γενική ομολογία ανάκαμψε σχετικά γρήγορα από την χρηματοοικονομική κρίση του 2013 , ενώ ο χειρισμός της πανδημίας παρά τις επιμέρους αδυναμίες χαρακτηρίζεται ως θετικός – από αριθμό αναλυτών προβάλλεται η θέση ότι η πορεία της οικονομίας χαρακτηρίζεται από επιμέρους στρεβλώσεις, που αντικατοπτρίζεται στην υπέρμετρη εξάρτηση από τον τουρισμό και τον τομέα των κατασκευών – οι πολεμικές αναταραχές στην Ουκρανία φέρνουν στο επίκεντρο ακόμη μια πρόκληση – την εξάρτηση από τις σχέσεις της Κύπρου με τη Ρωσία και σε μικρότερο βαθμό την Ουκρανία – ποιοι τομείς προβλέπεται να επηρεαστούν περισσότερο; πως θα επηρεαστούν η απασχόληση και τα εισοδήματα; πως μπορεί να προσαρμοστεί ο ιδιωτικός τομέας; πως μπορεί η Κυβέρνηση να αμβλύνει τις επιπτώσεις; πως επηρεάζεται το αναπτυξιακό μοντέλο της Κύπρου;
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday 24 March 2022
17:00-18:15
The journey towards sustainability, resilience, and purpose: An overview of the ESG challenges, opportunities, and ways of successfully incorporating ESG practices in organizations
Speakers:
Antonis Bargilly – Board Member, Head of Management Consulting and KPMG IMPACT
Eleni Damianou – Senior Manager in Management Consulting and KPMG IMPACT
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus
Abstract: Sustainable investing is becoming more popular and environmental, societal and governance criteria (ESG), are becoming increasingly more important when deciding potential new investments. The financial world is rushing to offer more compatible products for their clients. The European Central Bank has concluded on a comprehensive action plan, to further incorporate climate change considerations into its policy framework. This means that the central bank is committed to reflect environmental sustainability considerations more systematically in its monetary policy. There is no doubt that ESG is well intended. It comes with tools, standards and disclosures that keep growing. Can we influence the direction of capital allocation with ESG tools and so have a social impact, toward solving large social problems? Can this tool deliver significant results in our quest to fight climate change? We discuss ESG, its application and likely impact in business and society in this discussion.
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday 10 March 2022
17:00-18:15
Past, Present and Future of Fiscal Policy in the EU
Speaker: Maria Demertzis, Deputy Director, The Bruegel
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus
Abstract: The architecture of the euro area rests on two pillars, fiscal sustainability, and price stability. The two are inter-related because price stability through monetary policy and interest rates can affect fiscal sustainability. The Covid crisis was unprecedented and required a huge fiscal response. Fiscal rules were suspended in this crisis, until the end of 2022, and public debt levels increased steeply. But we are also at the start of the green and digital transitions which require huge investments both public and private. Hence, going back to the previous fiscal rules may not be fit for purpose. What kind of fiscal regime in the euro area, would be fit then, for fiscal sustainability that at the same time would also support the investment priorities of member states in the decade? We take up these issues and more with, Maria Demertzis.
Discussion Forum – web event
Thursday 17 February 2022
17:00-18:15
Global and European Economic Prospects and Next Generation EU
Speaker: Silvia Merler, Head of research for the Algebris Policy & Research Forum
Chair: Ioannis Tirkides – Economic Research Manager, Bank of Cyprus
Abstract: Following a strong recovery in 2021, the global economy will be slowing in 2022, including the EU, driven by setbacks from the pandemic, persistent supply chain disruptions, higher inflation, and tightening financial conditions. Oil and gas prices will remain volatile creating uncertainty. Higher debt ratios in many countries will be constraining public spending at a time when investment needs will be rising as the green transition accelerates. Next generation EU funding will be critical but will not be enough to meet the new challenges and debates are shifting to more permanent fiscal structures in the EU. Italy is a focal country because it has a large and ambitious recovery plan which includes an ambitious reform programme. We will be looking into these issues and more in this discussion event.
Conference and panel discussion – web event
Thursday 3 February 2022
17:00-18:30
Annual Economy Panel: A Review of Outlook and Prospects
Speakers:
Ioannis Tirkides – Manager Economic Research, Bank of Cyprus
Andreas Charalambous – Economist, former Director of Financial Stability, Ministry of Finance
George Kyriacou – Director of Economic Analysis and Research, Central Bank of Cyprus
Andreas Assiotis – Chief Economist, Hellenic bank
George Syrichas – Advisor, Economic Research Centre, University of Cyprus
Chair: Sofronis Clerides – Professor of Economics, Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Management University of Cyprus
Language: This event will be conducted in Greek
Abstract: This past year, 2021 has been an exceptional year because it has been the year of economic recovery following the deep Covid recession of 2020. It was also the year when next generation EU entered its implementation phase, first with the submission and approval of the national recovery plans and the first disbursements of funds. At the dawn of the new year, there are new issues and challenges. Undertaking the necessary investments for the green and digital transitions; the reform of the Europe’s fiscal framework; the uncertainty of inflation; the monetary tapering; and debt sustainability. The Cyprus economy did relatively well in 2021 but will be slowing in 2022. We will be discussing the economic outlook and the prospects for the medium term.
Event Materials
Presentation: Ioannis Tirkides
Presentation: Andreas Charalambous
Presentation: George Kyriacou
Presentation: Andreas Assiotis
Presentation: George Syrichas
